Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Is Google dying? (my perspective)

This is my answer to the question at Quora http://www.quora.com/Google/Is-Google-dying. The question was asked this morning and this is what I think

I do agree Google is not dying, but it is not growing either (the way they used to grow) They have a big challenge on expanding and evolving their services. We are living 2011 and the search results are very similar to the ones that we had in 1999, yes, more relevant, but not a big evolution in 10 years... so, my point is. Yes they have great talent, but what are they doing? yes they have the biggest share in search and they are growing in some other areas, but... they are just expanding what they have or replicating what others are creating... They are not pushing us to evolve as they did more than 10 years ago.

Google will die if they do not go back to their origins. They are becoming (from my perspective...) what they tried to avoid to be 10 years ago. They are afraid of risk, they are not pushing us to do better things, they (like any other public company) want to listen the customer to ensure sales, without doing anything else but what the users want (that was Yahoo! in 2000). They stop listening them selves on what they can evolve from the world, because they do not want to jeopardize revenue.

Why do I think this way... they created Google to give us a better way to search the web... (great!!) they created (bought) Android, because mobile is (going to be) a big search market, not because they want to change the world... they want to meet stakeholders expectations. They are killing "Wave" because it did not grow enough to be a revenue center, it was an expense growing very slow and NOW Google is first a business than 2 guys wanting change the world (which is ok... for GOOG the stock price and in the short term)

So... I do not think Google will die, but it will be another Yahoo! , Microsoft, AOL, etc but it wont be an Apple anymore. Google had (still has) the opportunity to change the rules / world, etc they just need to stop analyzing markets and doing more for people (not through a Market Research or usability tests). Bring us a new and better way to find what we are looking for, something that not even us know could be better... Google did not asked anyone when they first started, they had a vision... and now they have WStreet commitment instead. So... as a Company you will do ok, until the next guy with vision bring us what you are afraid of now to do...

It is easy to write this when I am not Larry Page, but he had a dream once and we are thankful with him for that, and we know Google can give us more, due their talent, knowledge and once upon a time vision.

I hope I am wrong and they help us evolving the world again, risking and fast and not making decision based on stock price.

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